TPG particular evaluation: What affect did Marriott’s modifications actually have on the worth of Bonvoy factors?

Effectively, it lastly occurred: Marriott switched to dynamic pricing late final month.

Gone are the times of predictable award costs with this system. The resort large eliminated award charts from its web site, and the worth of award nights might now range from night time to nighttime.

Fortunately, Marriott opted to maintain 97% of accommodations inside their earlier off-peak to peak pricing bands by means of the tip of the 12 months. However the 3% of accommodations that now value outdoors of those bands could be considerably dearer.

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In some instances, this may be 30,000 extra factors per night time in comparison with the earlier award chart costs. And as you’d count on, most of the accommodations that are actually pricing outdoors of bands are aspirational redemptions, together with many Ritz-Carlton, Version and JW Marriott properties across the globe.

However how considerably does Marriott’s dynamic pricing have an effect on the worth of your factors?

Marriott did not present an in depth breakdown for a big share of its 8,000-plus accommodations. Whereas a number of examples had been supplied, we wished to conduct our personal evaluation on a cross-section of the portfolio we consider represents a variety of properties throughout the 30 Marriott manufacturers in international locations around the globe.

This consists of the 20 most redeemed Marriott properties on the planet, 11 TPG favorites and 22 properties in different locations open for American vacationers at various value factors — providing you with a practical have a look at how a lot worth you may get out of your factors and miles at this second in time.

Right here, we’ll break down the information and present you the way a lot your factors are price in several areas and at completely different value factors, after which offer you an total worth to your Marriott Bonvoy factors.

However first, let’s take a look at our methodology.

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The methodology

The Bodrum Version. (Picture by Nick Ellis/The Factors Man)

We began our quest to worth Marriott Bonvoy factors by choosing properties to seek for each after-tax money and award charges.

As mentioned, 20 of the properties searched listed below are straight from Marriott’s listing of its hottest properties for factors redemption worldwide. This consists of many well-known Marriott properties, just like the Wailea Seashore Resort in Maui and the Walt Disney World Swan in Orlando. Then, we added in a number of workers favorites, just like the JW Marriott Scottsdale Camelback Inn Resort & Spa and The Bodrum Version.

Nevertheless it’s not all luxurious accommodations. To spherical out the listing, we additionally added some modest properties just like the Moxy Paris Bastille, SpringHill Suites Springdale Zion Nationwide Park and the Courtyard Agra in India. A lot to our shock, many budget-friendly accommodations had been on Marriott’s listing of most redeemed properties, too.

As soon as we had a listing of properties, we pulled money and award charges for all out there dates in Might, June, November, December, and January to search out factors worth throughout a number of the most high-demand journey instances. This meant over 150 dates had been looked for every property — greater than 15,000 information factors in all.

Not at all is that this a complete evaluation, nevertheless it provides us a primary style of the affect of dynamic pricing. Pulling this comparatively broad vary of dates additionally helps us discover a median worth for various seasons.

We used this information to calculate an “common” award price for every particular person property we priced out. And from there, we calculated the general common worth for every area, sort of resort and season. We additionally calculated an total worth of Marriott Bonvoy factors, which we are going to share with you later within the article.

Once more, this system doesn’t seize all dates and properties, nevertheless it does assist us calculate the preliminary affect of Marriott dynamic pricing — and discover a tough worth of Marriott Bonvoy factors.

US mainland accommodations and resorts

View from the JW Marriott Scottsdale Camelback Inn Resort & Spa. (Picture by Ben Smithson/The Factors Man)

Beginning at residence, we searched 20 accommodations within the continental U.S., spanning quite a few states and cities.

Here is a have a look at the properties we searched and their common cents-per-point redemption values:

  • JW Marriott Scottsdale Camelback Inn Resort & Spa in Scottsdale, Arizona — 1.08 cents per level.
  • The West Hollywood Version in Hollywood, California — 0.58 cents per level.
  • The Westin Denver Worldwide Airport in Denver — 0.66 cents per level.
  • Sheraton Sand Key Resort in Clearwater, Florida — 0.67 cents per level.
  • Gaylord Palms Resort & Conference Heart in Kissimmee, Florida — 1.05 cents per level.
  • JW Marriott Marco Island Seashore Resort in Marco Island, Florida — 0.64 cents per level.
  • Moxy South Seashore in Miami Seashore, Florida — 0.61 cents per level.
  • Walt Disney World Swan in Orlando — 0.62 cents per level.
  • Orlando World Heart Marriott in Orlando — 0.82 cents per level.
  • Courtyard Atlanta Downtown in Atlanta — 1.06 cents per level
  • Residence Inn Oak Brook in Oak Brook, Illinois — 1.24 cents per level.
  • New York Marriott Marquis in New York Metropolis — 0.82 cents per level.
  • Sheraton New York Instances Sq. Lodge in New York Metropolis — 0.66 cents per level.
  • JW Marriott Essex Home New York in New York Metropolis – 0.66 cents per level.
  • The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas, Autograph Assortment in Las Vegas — 0.42 cents per level.
  • TownPlace Suites Portland Beaverton in Beaverton, Oregon — 1.03 cents per level
  • Gaylord Opryland Resort & Conference Heart in Nashville — 0.73 cents per level.
  • SpringHill Suites Springdale Zion Nationwide Park in Springdale, Utah – 0.75 cents per level.
  • Sheraton Grand Seattle in Seattle — 0.48 cents per level.
  • Fairfield Inn & Suites Tulsa Downtown Arts District in Tulsa, Oklahoma — 0.92 cents per level.
  • Fairfield Inn & Suites Chicago Downtown/Magnificent Mile in Chicago — 0.69 cents per level.
  • Le Meridien Dallas, The Stoneleigh in Dallas — 0.97 cents per level.
  • 4 Factors by Sheraton Anaheim in Anaheim, California — 0.52 cents per level.

General, our common worth for U.S. properties is 0.77 cents per level, just below our present valuation of 0.8 cents for Marriott Bonvoy factors. That stated, there are some standout values right here. For instance, the JW Marriott Camelback and Gaylord Palms Resort can get you simply over 1 cent per level in worth, which is strong for Marriott redemptions.

On the flip aspect, it’s possible you’ll need to keep away from utilizing your Marriott Bonvoy factors in Orlando, as each the Walt Disney World Swan and Orlando World Heart will get you beneath the typical valuation. After all, this won’t be the case for all dates, nevertheless it’s price preserving in thoughts.

Hawaiian accommodations and resorts

You will get a great worth when redeeming Marriott factors in Hawaii. (Picture courtesy of The Ritz-Carlton Residences, Waikiki Seashore)

We additionally looked for 4 properties in Hawaii, together with:

  • Wailea Seashore Resort Marriott on Maui — 1.18 cents per level.
  • The Ritz-Carlton Residences, Waikiki Seashore on Oahu — 0.73 cents per level.
  • Waikiki Seashore Marriott Resort & Spa on Oahu — 0.78 cents per level.
  • Residence Inn Oahu Kapolei on Oahu — 0.62 cents per level.

Whereas not as broad of a set of information, you may get a median of 0.82 cents per level when redeeming for accommodations in Hawaii. That is barely increased than our present Marriott valuation and exhibits you could get a strong worth when redeeming Marriott factors in Hawaii.

It may be exhausting to search out availability at these properties throughout peak journey instances, so you may need to begin planning your journey effectively upfront.

Excessive-end worldwide resorts

Breakfast on the Al Maha Resort in Dubai. (Picture by Ethan Steinberg/The Factors Man)

One common technique to redeem Marriot factors is on high-end resorts overseas. These redemptions have traditionally supplied outsize redemption worth and thus had been a number of the accommodations we feared can be considerably affected by dynamic pricing. Here is what we discovered:

  • Aruba Marriott Resort & Stellaris On line casino in Palm Seashore, Aruba — 1.01 cents per level.
  • Renaissance Aruba Resort & On line casino in Oranjestad, Aruba — 0.92 cents per level.
  • The Ritz-Carlton, Grand Cayman on Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands — 0.89 cents per level.
  • Fiji Marriott Resort Momi Bay in Nadi, Fiji — 0.51 cents per level.
  • The St. Regis Maldives Vommuli Resort within the Maldives — 1.8 cents per level.
  • Bodrum Version in Bodrum, Turkey — 0.79 cents per level.
  • Al Maha, a Luxurious Assortment Desert Resort & Spa in Dubai — 1.2 cents per level.

This exhibits you could nonetheless get wonderful worth out of your Marriott factors at high-end resorts overseas, with these properties getting a median of 1.01 cents per level in worth. However like Hawaii, you would possibly run into hassle truly discovering award house at a few of these properties throughout peak seasons.

If you wish to get actually granular and see the typical redemption values for all resorts we examined — together with resorts within the mainland U.S. and Hawaii — we find yourself with a median of 0.92 cents per level redeemed, additional exhibiting that resorts are an effective way to get worth out of your Marriott factors in a post-dynamic pricing world.

European accommodations

The Madrid Version. (Picture courtesy of Marriott)

Marriott has a big footprint in Europe, with most main cities having a minimum of one property. We pulled pricing for 11 European accommodations, and right here’s what we discovered.

  • Moxy Vienna Airport in Vienna — 1.20 cents per level.
  • Courtyard Brno in Brno, Czech Republic — 1.24 cents per level.
  • Moxy Paris Bastille in Paris — 0.41 cents per level.
  • Residence Inn Frankfurt in Frankfurt — 0.87 cents per level.
  • St. Regis Rome in Rome — 1.21 cents per level.
  • W Amsterdam in Amsterdam — 0.81 cents per level.
  • AC Lodge Krakow in Krakow, Poland — 0.45 cents per level.
  • Bodrum Version in Bodrum, Turkey — 0.79 cents per level
  • London Marriott Lodge County Corridor in London — 0.61 cents per level.
  • London Version in London — 1.15 cents per level.
  • Madrid Version in Madrid — 0.94 cents per level.

Primarily based on our pattern searches, you’ll be able to count on to get 0.88 cents per level in worth. It is a comparatively small information set, however we made an effort to incorporate a mixture of high-end and mid-tier Marriotts to present a leveled common worth.

Asian accommodations

The pool at The Westin Singapore. (Picture by Ravi Ghelani/The Factors Man)

Shifting our focus to Asia, we searched costs for eight accommodations in Asia. This restricted subset is largely as a result of many of the area remains to be closed to American vacationers. Like Europe, we looked for a combination of high-end and mid-tier accommodations.

  • Courtyard Agra in Agra, India — 0.85 cents per level.
  • Component Bali Ubud in Bali, Indonesia — 0.78 cents per level.
  • The St. Regis Bali in Bali, Indonesia — 1.0 cents per level
  • The Westin Tokyo in Tokyo — 0.47 cents per level.
  • Courtyard Iloilo in Iloilo, Philippines — 0.89 cents per level.
  • The Westin Singapore in Singapore — 1.17 cents per level.
  • Aloft Bangkok Sukhumvit 11 in Bangkok — 0.62 cents per level.
  • W Koh Samui in Surat Thani, Thailand — 0.67 cents per level.

Whereas these eight accommodations cannot present a complete determine for the exact valuation of all accommodations all through Asia, our Asia resort searches revealed a median of 0.81 cents per level in worth. This determine is roughly on par with our present valuation of Marriott Bonvoy factors at 0.8 cents per level.

How a lot are Marriott Bonvoy factors price in 2022?

So … when all 15,000-plus of those particular person information factors are mixed, how a lot are your Marriott factors price?

After we common all properties collectively, we’re left with a median worth of 0.84 cents per level.

That is truly increased than our earlier valuation of 0.8 cents per level. And it exhibits that, based mostly on these 50-plus properties, there’s nonetheless worth available.

That stated, it is vital to notice that many properties fall under this common. Particularly, mid-tier properties in Europe and a few high-end properties within the U.S. had decrease common values than the general common.

Additional, there are extra modifications on the horizon for Marriott in January 2023. So whereas our preliminary take a look at exhibits a barely increased valuation, we’re placing a giant asterisk subsequent to it and can proceed to run extra checks within the coming months.

It is vital to notice there was a variety within the values we discovered. For instance, the highest European property had a thrice increased worth than the bottom.

As well as, there are nonetheless candy spots within the Bonvoy program. Primarily based on our checks, luxurious resorts are exhibiting a better-than-average return in lots of instances. And whereas a few of these won’t be nearly as good of a deal as they had been within the pre-dynamic period, they nonetheless signify an opportunity to get strong worth out of your factors.

However keep in mind, our testing isn’t the be-all and end-all. We couldn’t take a look at each date throughout each property. Your finest guess is to seek for these properties at which you need to redeem your factors — and if in case you have flexibility in your journey dates or locations, you may have a higher likelihood of discovering a great redemption.

For instance, search for high-end properties throughout low seasons or guide weekday nights as a substitute of weekend nights in case your schedule permits.

Regardless, one factor is for certain: Marriott award pricing is now extra variable than prior to now, and we do not know the extent to which this may change even additional when pricing bands go away totally subsequent 12 months.

Backside line

Dropping a printed award chart could make it tougher to plan towards a particular redemption aim, and there was concern that Marriott’s shift to dynamic pricing would signify a big devaluation. Per our information, that concern has not been realized at the moment, as on common, we noticed a price of 0.84 cents per level throughout the 15,000-plus information factors we analyzed. That is just like our earlier valuation of 0.8 cents apiece.

After all, this pattern does not imply that Marriott factors are unchanged. Dynamic pricing signifies that award charges throughout the Marriott portfolio can range from night time to nighttime. And whereas simply 3% of collaborating properties can value outdoors of the previous classes as of now, all Marriott areas may have this risk in 2023.

Solely time will inform whether or not that subsequent growth will additional have an effect on the worth of Marriott factors.

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